Conditional Risk-Return Relationship in a Time-Varying Beta Model
School of Business
We investigate the asymmetric risk-return relationship in a time-varying beta CAPM. A state space model is established and estimated by the Adaptive Least Squares with Kalman foundations proposed by McCulloch. Using S&P 500 daily data from 1987:11-2003:12, we find a positive risk-return relationship in the up market (positive market excess returns) and a negative relationship in the down market (negative market excess returns). This supports the argument of Pettengill et al., who use a constant beta model. However, our model outperforms theirs by eliminating the unexplained returns and improving the accuracy of the estimated risk price. © 2008 Taylor & Francis.
Huang, P. & Hueng, C. J. (2008). Conditional risk–return relationship in a time-varying beta model. Quantitative Finance, 8(4): 381-390. DOI: 10.1080/14697680701191361